The probability of a Carrington event is now greater than 50%

The probability of a Carrington event is now greater than 50%

Published 27.02.2024 | By Йосиф

The probability of a Carrington event is now greater than 50%

spaceweather.com: Giant sunspot AR3590 spent last weekend getting bigger and bigger. This two-day film from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory shows how AR3590’s area increased by a quarter in just 48 hours:

AR3590 is currently the largest sunspot of solar cycle 25. By comparison, it now represents 60% of the surface area of the large sunspot that caused the Carrington event in September 1859.

Whether something like this will happen again is a big question, but if a 60% Carrington event were to happen again today, it would still cause terrible problems with satellites, power grids and Internet connections. That is why solar forecasters are now closely monitoring this spot.

Last week, AR3590 produced three X-flares in a row, including the strongest flare of the current solar cycle (X6.3). Since then, the sunspot has been relatively quiet, producing only a few low-yield M-class explosions.

Is the AR3590 preparing for the new X-flash? If so, the flare would be geoeffective since AR3590 is essentially facing Earth.

Comment from the Editors of The Big The One: NASA slightly scares countries and peoples quite regularly with large sunspots, the last time not more than a couple of weeks ago. And then we assured our readers that there would be no big bad boom, since astral walkers wrote that everything was in order there.

However, today we cannot say this:

These are the vangas of astropaths-telepaths for yesterday and the day before yesterday. We don’t translate the quotes, because there’s the usual blah-blah-blah about three days of darkness, the shift of the earth’s axis and all that – nothing new. More important is the appearance of such warnings.

If two sensitive people hanging out on the same resource were simultaneously struck in the head by something like this, it means that the probability of such vangs being realized is already somewhere around 60%. And NASA writes about 60%. Therefore, the situation with a large solar flare is not at all clear now, so we are monitoring the developments.

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